Explainer: What was the compulsion that Maldives again came to India for shelter, all the tones of protest changed

Recently, Indian Foreign Minister S Jaishankar visited Maldives. Where he was welcomed by the Muhammad Muizzu government. Even before this, the anti-India tone of the Muizzu government had started changing. After coming to power in November last year, it seemed that Muizzu did not want to have any kind of relationship with India, but what happened in one year that Maldives came to know the price of flour and pulses and then it started feeling that India is a big need for it, it cannot function without it.

What are the special reasons behind the changed stance of Maldives, due to which it has understood that anti-India stance is not good for its country. Let us know about those reasons and also know that when the Muizzu government came to power in Maldives, what kind of stance it showed that there was discomfort in the relations between the two neighbouring countries.

Question – Why does Maldives want to improve relations with India after its bitter stance?
– Muizzu took power in Maldives on 07 November 2023, after which he continuously took such decisions which were going to affect relations with India. But now it seems for the past few years that the Maldives government wants to improve the soured relations with India. After a period of strained relations, the Maldives government under the leadership of President Ibrahim Solih Muizzu is trying to restore a sense of normalcy in relations with India. There are many reasons for that.

Question – What announcements did Maldives make a year ago to reduce its dependence on India?
– Then under the leadership of President Muizzu, Maldives had sought to reduce its dependence on India and find alternatives, which included sourcing food items from Turkey to replace the ones that were constantly being sent from India, buying drones from Turkey and running health insurance initiatives from the United Arab Emirates and Thailand. But the reality is that with time, Maldives realized that its treasury does not have enough money to take decisions that unnecessarily burden the treasury.
Maldives has a huge burden of foreign debt. It is constantly being warned that if it does not take precautions, it will be trapped in a big crisis. This made Maldives realize that if immediate debt relief measures are to be taken, then relations with India will have to be improved. Moreover, the supplies of food and other items from India to Maldives were done at very cheap rates. India has generally been sending essential goods to neighboring countries at minimal rates without any profit.

Maldives is a beautiful country whose economy is based on tourism. Indian tourists have been playing a vital role in boosting its economy.

Question – Is the Maldives government now realising that its anti-India stance has caused it harm?
– This is the reason. Since Muizzu had won the elections by creating an anti-India atmosphere, he wanted to take it forward. In such an atmosphere, the ministers and officials of the ruling party did not refrain from making irresponsible comments on India. This caused a lot of damage to the foreign and economic outlook of Maldives. On the other hand, the Chinese debt was increasing. Maldives understood that continuing to take help from China meant getting caught in a debt trap from which it would be difficult to get out. Then it started understanding India’s role as a reliable partner.

Question – Why did Indian Foreign Minister S Jaishankar visit Maldives at this time, what will change with this?
– Some time ago, Maldives President Muizzu visited India. After that, when Maldives’ attitude towards India started improving, efforts began to reopen the channel between the two countries, where the two countries came closer like before. In a way, this visit of the Indian Foreign Minister took place at the request of Maldives. During Foreign Minister S. Jaishankar’s visit to Maldives, President Muizzu described India as “one of the closest allies”. He reaffirmed his administration’s commitment to strengthen bilateral relations.
India has invested around $220 million in the Maldives in recent years, showing the importance it attaches to regional development in the island nation.

Question – Did the reduction in the number of Indian tourists visiting Maldives also have an impact?
– Maldives depends a lot on Indian tourists. The economy of Maldives needs improvement. Attracting Indian tourists can help boost economic activities. After the tension that came some time ago, when the number of Indian tourists visiting there decreased, the tourism-based economy of this country started getting affected.

Question – What is the difference between the economic aid from India and China, that Maldives is forced to turn to India after being burdened with Chinese debt?
India has been the main country to help Maldives in its development, providing financial aid on favourable and flexible terms. On the other hand, China’s terms of aid are more risky, and it is being felt that Maldives is slowly getting badly burdened by China’s debt. Its terms are also going to put it in trouble.
– In the interim budget for 2024-25, India allocated Rs 600 crore (about $73 million) for development assistance to the Maldives, 50% more than the previous year’s outlay of Rs 400 crore. India’s assistance to the Maldives covers various sectors such as defense, education, healthcare and infrastructure. China has invested heavily in the Maldives through infrastructure projects, raising concerns about Maldives’ growing debt to China. Also, the terms of China’s loan are complex.

Question – Why is the support of Maldives important for India also?
– The Maldives occupies a strategic position in the Indian Ocean in terms of geopolitical stability. Its relationship with India is important for regional security. The previous Maldives government was closely aligned with India. A stable partnership is necessary to balance China’s growing influence in the region. The Maldives government itself has begun to realize that antagonizing India could lead to geopolitical instability that would not be in the best interests of the Maldives. By aligning more closely with India, the Maldives can better navigate the geopolitical dynamics of the Indian Ocean.

The population of Maldives has been heavily dependent on India for food and beverages, which it has been getting at very subsidized rates. (Courtesy – madives site avas)

Question – So should it be assumed that now the foreign policy of the Muizzu government of Maldives is also changing?
– When Muizzu became the President of Maldives, the government led by him initially moved forward with a “keep India out” attitude. But with time, they started realizing the situation. Now after re-evaluating the situation, it is becoming clear that the “India First” policy of the pro-India government before Muizzu government brought more economic benefits and stability to the country. India also kept patience during this period and always adopted a positive attitude and continued cooperation. Due to this, the attitude of the Maldives government has changed. Now its changed attitude has started bringing it closer to India again.

Question – How does improving relations with India benefit Maldives, which matters for the development and stability of Maldives?
– Maldives has been getting these benefits in many ways. In the last one year, Maldives tried to look towards other countries for alternatives but it realized that other countries are not going to stand by it in many matters the way India has. Importing goods from other countries was also becoming quite expensive.
– India is a major source of tourists for Maldives, in the year 2022, the total share of Indian tourists in the tourism market of Maldives was 14.7 percent. This is very important in the economy of Maldives. Increasing Indian tourism can increase revenue. Local businesses can get support.
– Bilateral trade between the two countries was more than $300 million in 2021. India became one of its largest trading partners. This includes essential goods such as food, pharmaceuticals and construction materials.
– Maldives imports a variety of goods from India, including refined petroleum and agricultural products, while exporting scrap metal and other items. This trade relationship is essential to meet the daily needs of Maldives and to boost its economy.
– India has historically provided development assistance to the Maldives, often on favourable terms.
– The contribution of Indian professionals has been tremendous not only in the health and education sector of Maldives but also in the service sector. Collaborative projects in areas such as health, education and infrastructure can create better living standards and economic opportunities for the people of Maldives.
– India is a major supplier of essential commodities including rice, spices and vegetables, that too at very concessional rates. Maldives does not have anything of its own, it imports most of the food items from abroad.

Tags: EAM S Jaishankar, Maldives, S Jaishankar