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Presidential elections will be held in America on November 5.
Alan Lichtman (77 years), a famous historian who predicts the US presidential election, has predicted Kamala Harris’ victory. According to the New York Times, his claim is also important because 9 out of 10 of his predictions in the last 40 years have proved to be true.
Lichman was among the few people who predicted Trump’s victory in 2016. After the victory, Trump also praised his prediction. However, when Biden dropped out of the presidential race last July, he called this decision a big mistake for the Democratic Party.
One and a half months later, Lichtman’s tone has changed. In a 7-minute video in the New York Times, he said that Harris’ victory in the November 5 election is certain.
Together with a friend, I found a formula to predict the future Lichtman, a professor of history at American University, makes election predictions not based on any surveys but on his ‘Keys to the Vice-House Model’, which he developed in 1981 with his friend Vladimir Keilis-Borok.
This model was prepared on the basis of the results of all the US presidential elections held in the last 120 years. On this basis, they have been making predictions since 1984. Under this model, they test the candidates on 13 criteria.
These criteria include things like midterm elections, incumbency, primaries, independent candidates, short term economy, long term economy, policy change, White House scandals, foreign policy. According to Lichman, Kamala Harris is ahead on 8 out of 13 criteria. This is the reason why her chances of winning are high. At the same time, Trump is ahead on 3 criteria. The answer to 2 has not been found yet.
Lichtman has been accurately predicting almost every American election for the last 40 years.
The prediction did not prove correct in the 2000 election Lichtman says he predicted Democratic candidate Al Gore would win the 2000 election, which was not accurate. However, technically he was right there too. Gore won the popular vote in that election. The electoral vote was decided by the US Supreme Court.
Actually, that year there was a close contest between the two candidates. The victory of both depended on the result of Florida. Here too the matter ended in a tie after which the matter went to the court. After 36 days, the Supreme Court gave the verdict in favour of George W. Bush by a margin of 5-2.
In addition to making political predictions, Lichtman has also predicted the success and failure of the economy, scandals, and foreign policy.
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