Nifty Bank Nifty Outlook: Fed meeting and what to do in the market now?


GIFT NIFTY is up 0.1%, indicating a flat to positive start for Indian stock markets. Meanwhile, Asian markets are trading mixed signals. Japan’s Nikkei 225 is down 1.4%, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index is up 0.5%.

US Market Update:
Dow Jones: 41,662 (▲0.5%)
S&P 500: 5,633 (▲0.1%)
Nasdaq Composite: 17,592 (▼0.5%)

US stock markets closed the day with mixed results, with technology companies seeing selling pressure ahead of the Federal Reserve meeting. In particular, Apple shares fell more than 3%, due to concerns over iPhone 16 sales.

Investors are concerned about how aggressively the Federal Reserve will cut rates, 0.25% or 0.50%? As of Monday, traders were forecasting a half-percentage cut with a 67% probability, up from last week’s 30% estimate. The probability of a 0.25% rate cut is now at 37%.

NIFTY50 Update:
September futures: 25,442 (▲0.2%)
Open Interest: 5,59,234 (▼2.9%)

NIFTY50 started on a positive note on Monday and even touched a new all-time high during the day. However, the index slipped from its intraday high due to profit booking at higher levels and formed a “doji candlestick” pattern on the daily chart. This pattern indicates that the market is stagnate and cautious at higher levels.

The technical structure of NIFTY50 remains bullish as the index is consolidating at higher levels. However, the doji pattern usually gives a neutral signal, which is forming within the range of September 13. Short-term traders can closely monitor the high and low levels of September 13. If the index closes above or below these levels, it will give the next direction signal.

BANK NIFTY UPDATE:
September futures: 52,261 (▲0.6%)
Open Interest: 1,40,016 (▼4.2%)

BANK NIFTY outperformed its benchmark index for the second consecutive day and closed above the 52,000 level. The index formed a green candle, which is similar to a doji candle but not a traditional one.

Technically, the index is at a crucial level. It has closed above the recent swing high (51,750) and closed above the previous day’s high for the third consecutive day, indicating bullishness in the market. Its nearest support is around 51,750.

FII-DII Activity:
Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) sold shares worth ₹1,634 crore after five days of buying, while domestic institutional investors (DIIs) bought shares worth ₹754 crore.